Forecast for Covid-19 in the United States

Covid-19 forecast from University of Massachusetts Amherst,
March 11, 2020

Real data and solid research matter. Read it. Share it. Use it. The information below is taken directly from the link in this post.

Results from Survey 4 (administered March 9-10, 2020)

  1. Experts predict a four-fold rise in reported cases in the US over the next week. They predict 1819 total cases (80% uncertainty interval: 823-6204 cases) of COVID-19 will be reported by the CDC on Monday March 16th, more than 4 times the CDC reported number of cases as of Monday, March 9th.
  2. The majority of experts (20/21, 95%) expect COVID-19 will reach community-level spread in the US

  3. Experts expect that community-level spread will occur in the US within 3 weeks (80% uncertainty interval: 0-10 weeks).

  4. Experts anticipate 44 US states will report cases of COVID-19 within one week (80% uncertainty interval: 39-48 states).

  5. Experts believe that only 13% (80% uncertainty interval: 4-30%) of all COVID-19 infections (symptomatic and asymptomatic) in the US were reported to the CDC as of Monday, March 9th.

This implies that as of the beginning of this week there were between 1410 and 10575 undiagnosed infections with COVID-19 in the US. 6. Experts believe that nationwide hospitalizations for COVID-19 will peak in May. 7.

The above results include answers from 21 experts.

Donald Trump’s Seven Dirty Words

Donald Trump isn’t afraid to use hate speech, but words grounded in science, facts, and evidence scare him and his followers so much that he is banning the use of seven words by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The words are:

vulnerable
entitlement
diversity
transgender
fetus
evidence-based
science-based

What are Trump and his followers so afraid of? Evidence and science-based research to protect a fetus from the Zika virus? Providing state of the art care to populations vulnerable to infection like transgender citizens of the United States? Diversity is what makes us a stronger country.

Thought-control and strangleholds on some of the world’s best health researchers, whose slogan is, “CDC 24/7 Saving Lives, Protecting People”™?

Call, email, Tweet, and Facebook your members of Congress and use every one of these words in your comments.